Most of America’s presidents who lost their bids for re-election promptly retired from the political fray. Donald Trump has evidently chosen a different path. His false claims that President Joe Biden stole the 2020 election have kept him to the fore in an increasingly factious party. Though there is little doubt he will try to run again in 2024, whether he will hold as much sway as before is in question. A Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania may hold some clues.
The race for the seat, left open by Pat Toomey, a retiring Republican, is likely to be tight. Pennsylvania voted for Mr Biden over Mr Trump by just one percentage point in 2020, and Mr Toomey won by only 1.5 points in 2016.
Equally vexing is who the parties will pick as their candidates for the contest. Seven Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination. Most will face off in a debate on Monday; the actual primary is on May 17th. Three leading candidates have emerged: Kathy Barnette, a conservative commentator; Dave McCormick, who ran Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund ; and Mehmet Oz, a talk-show host and former heart surgeon.
It is anyone’s race. The Economist’s analysis of political polls for the primary shows each candidate within the margin of error with the others, all hovering around 20% of the vote. Endorsements from political leaders are divided. One tally by Ballotpedia, an elections website, shows Mr McCormick has won the lion’s share of approval from current and former officials. He counts among his supporters Ted Cruz, a senator from Texas, and Elise Stefanik, who replaced Liz Cheney as the chair of the House Republican Conference last year. Kellyanne Conway, a former adviser to Mr Trump, is also in his camp. Thirteen major leaders have endorsed him.
Just nine leaders have endorsed Mr Oz. But Mr Trump is among them, and his voice is considered the most important. According to a survey by Echelon Insights, a Republican polling firm, a hypothetical candidate who is endorsed by both Mr Trump and local party leaders would win the backing of Republican primary voters by 29 percentage points. Those endorsed by local leaders but not by the president would lose by ten. That is good news for Mr Oz. Yet the only poll released since Mr Trump announced his support on April 9th showed him up just three points—and that was a significant drop from the same pollster’s last survey in February.
The ex-president has also chimed in elsewhere. In Ohio’s Republican Senate primary, Mr Trump is pulling for J.D. Vance, an author and former venture capitalist. He has barely managed to muster 15% in the polls, behind two other challengers, though the surveys are scarce. And in Georgia, Mr Trump’s pick for governor, David Perdue, lags behind the incumbent, Brian Kemp, by double digits. If Mr Trump wielded the influence over his party that he used to, surely his candidates would be running ahead—or at least not so far behind. ■