DEMOCRATS ARE likely to do badly in November’s mid-term elections, which have a tendency to pummel the party in power. In Florida only 39% of voters approve of Mr Biden (below the national average), so Republicans are likely to win the offices that matter. Two races will attract interest for what they reveal about Floridians’ priorities and the diversity of their candidates.

Marco Rubio, Florida’s senior senator, is running for a third term. The son of Cuban immigrants, Mr Rubio rose to prominence as a Tea Party conservative with hawkish foreign-policy views. He is likely to run against Val Demings, a black Democratic congresswoman who gained attention as a manager during Donald Trump’s impeachment trial in 2020 and had served as Orlando’s police chief.

The contest will be a “marquee race” that is the most competitive in Florida, predicts the University of South Florida’s Susan MacManus. Mr Rubio has more name recognition, but Ms Demings is exciting national donors. Mr Rubio outpaced Ms Demings last year by raising $24.3m for his re-election, against Ms Demings’s $20.7m, but she took in more than he did in the three most recent quarters. The two candidates’ backgrounds could encourage Hispanics and blacks to turn out, and Ms Demings’s law-enforcement chops will make it hard to portray her as soft on crime (although that will not stop Mr Rubio from trying).

Floridians will also vote for their next governor. With a 53% approval rating and a brimming campaign chest, Mr DeSantis (pictured) is likely to win re-election. His rise from little-known congressman to governor surprised many, since he won the Republican primary in 2018 only after Donald Trump offered an unexpected endorsement. Mr DeSantis has since pushed to the right, hoping to win the attention of primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire by supporting a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Yet as a potential rival for the 2024 nomination, he must balance his ambitions against keeping in with Mr Trump.

Mr DeSantis’s Democratic opponent will be chosen in a primary in August. Among those running are Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor from 2007 to 2011; Nikki Fried, the agriculture commissioner; and Annette Taddeo, a state senator. Mr Crist and Ms Fried have name recognition, but the more compelling candidate is Ms Taddeo. As a Colombian immigrant and small-business owner, she could easily drum up Hispanic support by challenging some of Mr DeSantis’s policies, such as barring businesses from requiring vaccines for their staff. According to Ms Taddeo, “That’s what they do in Cuba: the government tells you what you cannot do.”■